By Don Donatello
The betting odds started with Shane Mosley being a 10-1 underdog against Manny Pacquiao in their upcoming fight this Saturday on May 7th. People who make their living at setting the odds are almost always right. When they get it wrong, a lot of time there are unforeseen and/or unknown factors that played into it. Like the hand wraps factor that played in the Mosley/Margarito fight. In the Oscar/Pacquiao fight, the unknown factor was Pacquiao’s ability to fight at welterweight and to take a punch from a welterweight. In the Mosley/Pacquiao fight, there is little that we don’t know about these two fighters.
The last odds I saw about a few days ago is now 5.5 to 1 in favor of Pacquiao. That means there are many who were convinced by the promoter’s hype machine. A big part of the hype machine is of course the fighters themselves. Mosley is out there talking up his chances of beating and possibly knocking out Pacquiao. Naazim Richardson, Mosley’s trainer, has also been doing a masterful job in suckering . . .err . . . convincing the public into thinking that Mosley has a good chance of beating Pacquiao. And of course Manny Pacquiao, Bob Arum, and Freddie Roach is doing their best to keep a straight face while trying to convince the fans that Mosley is a dangerous fighter that could beat Pacquiao.
Now that the folks have purchased the tickets and PPV buys, I can finally speak the truth about the true chance of Mosley possibly beating Pacquiao. From a scale of 1 through 10, I give the same chance that I gave Antonio Margarito. In my previous article, I gave Margarito a 0.01% chance of beating Pacquiao. That is base on if Margarito threw 1000 punches for 12 rounds, he will have to land one, big, lucky punches and knockout Pacquiao with it.
The difference between Mosley and Margarito in their fight against Pacquiao is their weight at fight time. Mosley will not come close to the weight in which Margarito fought Pacquiao at 165 pounds. Margarito had a 17 pound advantage over Pacquiao, Mosley will not come in above 155 pounds. If he does, he will be saddled with extra weight that will slow him down. It will actually be an easier fight for Pacquiao if Mosley comes in over 155 pounds. I suspect Mosley will come in at about 153 – 155 pounds to preserve his speed for the fight. Coming in too light will have its consequence for Mosley. Mosley won’t have the size to withstand Pacquiao’s punch as much as the 165 pounds Margarito.
Pacquiao’s greatness will once again be shown to the world; this time in a very big way. Since leaving the 130 pound division, where he struggled to make weight, he has totally dominated every opponent since. At the Jr. Welterweight and Welterweight division, Pacquiao’s opponents were totally dominated. The impressive thing is that each opponent was supposed to be competitive, in one he was even the underdog, against Oscar Dela Hoya. Mosley will be the latest to be shocked and awed when he steps into the ring against Pacquiao. Once again people will be expecting a competitive fight, and again they will be disappointed because Pacquiao will dominate Shane Mosley. It will be somewhat competitive for the first 3-5 rounds. By the 6th round Pacquiao will progressively dismantle Mosley. The 9th round will be the beginning of the end for Mosley. Thank you for participating, Shane.
I would like to thank all those people who played their part in building the hype leading up to the Pacquiao/Mosley fight. Many were writing that Mosley will beat Pacquiao, and they actually believe it, they’re wrong of course. Their inability to know and dissect all the components to form and mesh a correct conclusion of the fight caused them to write about a Mosley win. Once again, thank you for participating.
Mosley pointed out how some old fighters who were considered washed up and put on a very good performance against their much younger opponent. He names Bernard Hopkins fight against Jean Pascal, Erik Morales’ fight with Marcos Maidana, and of course he interjected his fight with Antonio Margarito. People with a narrow vision will focus on what Mosley is saying and think that Mosley could pull of the same thing and beat Pacquiao. Here is what many people are missing. We are talking about Pacquiao; who in their right mind would equate Maidana, Pascal, and Margarito to Pacquiao?
I have one hope for Mosley. I hope they have a very capable team of doctors around the ring wearing a set of Pacquiao Nike shoes to spring them into action as fast as possible.
When Floyd Mayweather sees what Pacquiao will do to Mosley, he will ask for $200 million dollars to get into the ring against Manny Pacquiao. Plus he will also demand that Pacquiao take a DNA test to prove that he is actually that of the human race.
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