By Carlos Young de San Felipe
THIS IS IT..!! The week. This is Cinco de Mayo weekend and of course that means there is Big-Time boxing match scheduled and it probably includes Floyd Mayweather Jr. Isn’t that how it’s been for about the last 6 or 7 years. It seems we all look forward to it. I know I do.
Floyd “Money” Mayweather vs. Robert “The Ghost” Guerrero, this is a very hot topic on the sports Blogs and the opinions are many and varied with most suggesting a very close fight going the full 12 rounds. I have been watching both fighters for quite a while and I too think this is a powerful matchup. Styles make fights and these two styles should make this fight one of the best of the year.
The thing that makes this fight curious to me is that many fans call it a close fight that Robert Guerrero can win but the betting money says Mayweather wins fairly easily. Now which is it?
Can Guerrero win the fight? Yeah, I think he can win, I just don’t know how he can win.
Rough and Tough:
Most say he needs to keep the pressure on Floyd and rough him up. Make the fight rough and tough. I have seen Robert fight very tough and very rough, and he wins those fights going away. I just don’t think he can be rough and tough with Floyd. I don’t think Floyd will let Robert hold him behind the head and slug him in the face the way he did to Andre Berto.
They can both get rough, Floyd. Maywether uses his elbows, mostly to get some space and his shoulder too. I don’t think the rough housing will be allowed much, you may see a little early in the fight.
So, I don’t think the rough play will get Robert the win. Mayweather has been in the Ring and in the Gym preparing for fights using bigger sparing partners than Robert.
Will it be volume punching that beats Floyd? Can the Ghost beat him through sheer punching volume? No, he cannot win through sheer volume punching. He has to be smart, efficient and accurate to win. Remember, it’s the biggest fight in his career no matter what he says he will be Amped-Up. If he can’t manage his internal calm the adrenalin levels will make him flat in the second half of the fight.
Volume punching as a strategy it will not serve Robert late in the fight. Mayweather always steps up the pace in the second half and it’s likely that Robert won’t be able to increase his output and survive. Less Volume will look bad to the judges, the fans and Television viewers. It will appear as if he has lost his effectiveness.
In my opinion, Robert has to stay fresh for 12 rounds and that means Volume Punching is a strategic mistake that will cost him late in the fight.
That said, Robert has to fight exceptionally well for 6 rounds, and then follow that up with an increased pace and more effectiveness, for the final 6 rounds to win. The reality is, Robert is not going to increase his punch output as the fight goes on, he won’t hit any harder, his feet will slow and he’ll become more of a target.
Slow you say….Floyd is going to be Slow….
Robert is younger and indeed in his prime; 30 years old. Floyd is a bit beyond his prime at 36 years old. True, but Floyd doesn’t have battle ware and tear. Don’t think for one minute that Miguel Cotto uncovered Floyd’s slowing feet and that’s why Floyd got his nose bloodied up…NOT!! I will let you in on a little secret, that blood, was showmanship, you know WWE style showmanship. You got to see Floyd Mayweather’s blood. Many were happy to see it.
Robert Guerrero Wins If He:
How does Robert win? Will Robert win by Pressure and Rough tactics, Volume Punching? No…No…No…The only way Robert can win is to keep a respectable punch output rate and Box. Robert is a very good boxer. Being rough and tough takes energy and that is why he ran out of gas going down the stretch against Andre Berto. If he runs out of gas going down the stretch against Floyd he will be knocked out and we all know that Floyd isn’t looking to knock anyone out.
Being rough won’t get him a win, Robert has to use his jab and keep the punch rate up but not too high or he’ll get tired. Robert has to be smart and win rounds early and get his body work in at every opportunity in order to slow Floyd in the late rounds.
If Robert goes into this fight trying to teach Floyd a lesson he will be taught the lesson.
Jose Luis Castillo, Oscar De La Hoya, Zab Judah and Miguel Cotto had success early against Floyd and all four of these men worked behind a good jab, even Floyds uncle Roger Mayweather has mentioned in interviews that if you don’t have a good jab you don’t have much of a chance.
The thing that makes this fight curious to me is that the fans call it a close fight but the betting money says Mayweather wins fairly easily…Now which is it???
I think Robert determines how the fight goes, he will have to be smart and not too aggressive but box in my opinion, not brawl and he may have a chance for the upset; otherwise the only people that are going to be upset are those that got suckered into the (+450 to +550) money-line on Robert Guerrero.
For those of you that don’t use the money-line it means that the gamblers say Robert has about a 15% to 16% chance of winning.
I agree. Floyd Mayweather unanimous decision; 116 -112 or 8 rounds to 4.