By Don Donatello
The Vegas odds makers are good, very good. They get it right almost everytime. Floyd Mayweather Jr. is a betting man, he knows how good the Vegas odds makers are.
November 15th, 2009, the day after the Miguel Cotto versus Manny Pacquiao fight, Mayweather gave Sky Sports of England an interview. In the video, pay close attention to Floyd Mayweather’s eyes. His demeanor, body language, and facial expression changes dramatically beginning at 00:20 of the video. Floyd’s eyes is profoundly telling when he talks about the possibility of him fighting Pacquiao. After seeing what Pacquiao did to Cotto, I see a man who is clearly shaken who is trying hard to convince others and himself that Pacquiao poses no threat to him and his career. That is not the look and sound of a confident man.
Floyd states that Manny had not called him out yet and all Pacquiao has to do is to “step up to the plate” if he wants to fight. At 3:34 of the video, Mayweather said that “Manny Pacquiao weighed 106 when he was 16, just like Floyd Mayweather weighed, 106 when he was 16 years old.”
Video of the Floyd Mayweather interview
What happened? A couple of days later, the Mayweather camp was singing a different tune. Would Mayweather have asked for Olympic Style Drug Testing (OSDT) if he was the 8 to 5 odds favorite? He never was such a huge underdog before, and he never asked to the OSDT.
On November 16, two days after Manny Pacquiao put on a very impressive 12th round stoppage of Miguel Cotto, Dan Rafael of ESPN reported that Station Casinos had Pacquiao as the 8 to 5 favorite over Mayweather if they fought. Source: Pacquiao looking to Mayweather fight
On November 18th, two days after Pacquiao was labeled as an 8 to 5 favorite, the Floyd Mayweather camp started to back pedal.
The following is an excerpt from Chris Mannix’s article that was posted on November 18 and released on SI on November 23 of 2009 issue.
“The showdown, should it happen, could come as soon as early May. But Mayweather has long been criticized for avoiding the most challenging opponents, and already some in his camp appear to be looking for ways out of the bout. Mayweather’s father, Floyd Sr., told SI he would advise his son not to face Pacquiao, saying that he believed Pacquiao’s ability to absorb Cotto’s shots and keep coming is proof that Pacquiao is taking performance-enhancing substances — an accusation for which he had no proof. “I know Floyd is the best,” says Mayweather Sr. “But when [your opponent] uses something illegal, even the best can get hurt.” Source: Floyd Mayweather Sr. accuses Manny Pacquiao of using steroids
From what I chronicled here, it looks like Floyd Mayweather Jr. and company had been sabotaging the potential Mayweather/Pacquiao fight as soon as the betting odds were released. I can visualize the Mayweathers monitoring the Vegas odds. They’ll wait for Pacquiao to slow down. When the odds changes and Pacquiao’s abilities have noticeably diminished, look for the Mayweathers to come calling.
I have always said that Mayweather’s genius and true talent is his ability to know which fighter he can beat and which ones he can’t. The knock of Andre Berto was that he has not fought anyone that prove he was a good fighter. Mayweather already had Berto in his sight. But Victor Ortiz got there first and exposed Berto before Mayweather got the chance.
Dan Rafael’s interview of Roach must have given Mayweather a very big scare. During the training camp in preparation of Pacquiao’s fight against Cotto, Roach tells about his conversation with the two time opponent of Floyd Mayweather Jr, Jose Luis Castillo. Acting as one of Pacquiao’s sparring partner, Castillo told Roach that Pacquiao, “is faster and hits way harder than Mayweather.” Castillo fought Mayweather twice.
It is the first Castillo/Mayweather fight that throws Mayweather’s argument out the window when he claims he is undefeated. The fight was on April 20th of 2002. With Castillo giving inside information about Mayweather to Pacquiao’s trainer, Freddie Roach, Mayweather’s comment at 02:08 of the Sky Sports interview could be the reference when Floyd said that “they are trying to build a fighter, they’re trying to make a fighter that can beat me.”
Jose Luis Castillo:
Jabs landed – 30
Power punches landed – 173
Total punches landed – 203
Floyd Mayweather Jr:
Jabs landed – 91
Power landed – 66
Total punches landed – 157
Let’s see what famed boxing historian, Bert Sugar, had to say as to why Floyd lost the psychological game. At 1:40 of the video below, Bert Sugar tells the reason why Floyd started to back pedal. Floyd started malting and shedding his feathers when he found out that Pacquiao was the odds on favorite against him in a fight. After the Las Vegas odds was initially released, it must have shook Mayweather to the bone. His confidence was battered, deep fried and refried! And then toasted! Mayweather’s gambling habit is well known. Do you think that Mayweather knows that the Vegas odds get it right almost every time.
Floyd Marweather Jr. was willing to fight Pacquiao. In a span of 5 days, from November 14 to November 18 of 2009, there were two things that shook him hard and changed his mind. The annihilation of an opponent he avoided, Miguel Cotto, and the odds in Vegas that says Pacquiao beats him by an 8 to 5 odds.
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