Mario Barrios, the reigning WBC welterweight champion, faces the legendary Manny Pacquiao on July 19th. Pacquiao, a 46-year-old icon with an unparalleled resume, is stepping back into the ring against the younger, hungrier Barrios. While Pacquiao’s legacy is untouchable, this matchup tilts in favor of Barrios for several key reasons: youth, physicality, technical sharpness, and strategic edge. Here’s why “El Azteca” is poised to hand Pacquiao a decisive defeat.
At 30 years old, Mario Barrios is in his athletic prime, boasting a record of 29-2 with 18 knockouts. His recent performances—particularly his dominant unanimous decision win over Fabian Maidana in May 2024 and his gritty stoppage of Yordenis Ugas in 2023—showcase a fighter at the peak of his powers. Pacquiao, on the other hand, hasn’t fought professionally since his 2021 loss to Ugas. At 46, even a legend like Pacquiao can’t defy Father Time. His reflexes, once lightning-fast, have visibly slowed, and the stamina that fueled his relentless combinations is unlikely to match Barrios’ youthful energy over 12 rounds.
Barrios stands at 5’10” with a 71-inch reach, giving him a significant size and reach advantage over the 5’5” Pacquiao, who has a 67-inch reach. In the welterweight division, where Pacquiao has often been the smaller man, this disparity could prove critical. Barrios has shown he can use his jab effectively to control distance, as seen in his tactical dismantling of Maidana. Pacquiao’s aggressive, in-and-out style relies on closing the gap, but Barrios’ length and footwork will make it difficult for Manny to land his signature flurries without eating clean counters.
Pacquiao’s southpaw brilliance—marked by blistering speed and unorthodox angles—has faded in recent years. His last standout performance was his 2019 win over Keith Thurman, but even then, he relied more on experience than explosiveness. Barrios, trained by the meticulous Bob Santos, has honed a disciplined style that blends power punching with defensive responsibility. His ability to mix body shots with crisp combinations, as demonstrated against Ugas, will test Pacquiao’s aging durability. Barrios’ recent fights show a fighter who’s improving, while Pacquiao’s long layoff raises questions about ring rust.
Barrios’ team will likely study Pacquiao’s recent outings, including his exhibition bout against Japanese kickboxer Rukiya Anpo where Pacquiao was getting outclassed by the taller and younger fighter. Anpo who is not a boxer was able to take Pacquiao’s punches and land at will. Pacquiao’s legs were no longer there or his reflexes he looked his age in that bout and you are only as good as your last fight and that is thelast time Pacquiao was seen in the ring. In his last professional boxing bout he lost to Ugas, where he struggled against a rangy, composed opponent.
Expect Barrios to employ a stick-and-move strategy, using his jab to keep Pacquiao at bay while targeting the body to sap Manny’s energy. Pacquiao thrives against opponents who engage in firefights, but Barrios has the ring IQ to avoid reckless exchanges. If Barrios can weather an early storm—Pacquiao often starts fast—he can take control in the later rounds as Manny’s output inevitably dips.
Pacquiao’s heart and experience are undeniable. He’s faced the best of multiple eras, from Morales to Mayweather, and his ability to defy odds is legendary. But Barrios isn’t a faded name looking for a payday; he’s a champion defending his title with everything to prove. The hunger to cement his name against a legend like Pacquiao will drive Barrios to train harder and fight smarter. Meanwhile, Pacquiao’s motivations—beyond adding to his legacy—are less clear, especially after a long hiatus and a focus on his political career.
This fight won’t be a walkover. Pacquiao’s craftiness and power could still produce highlight-reel moments, especially early on. But Barrios’ youth, size, and technical prowess will overwhelm the aging legend as the fight progresses. Look for Barrios to control the pace with his jab, land punishing body shots, and secure a unanimous decision, or possibly a late stoppage, as Pacquiao’s legs betray him in the championship rounds.
Mario Barrios is no longer the prospect who lost to Gervonta Davis; he’s a champion in his prime, ready to seize his moment. Pacquiao’s return is a testament to his courage, but Barrios will prove that time waits for no man—not even a legend.
