By Carlos Young de San Felipe
This Saturday night in Las Vegas NV, we boxing fans hope to experience the pleasure of watching one of boxings highly coveted and sought after matches. Canelo Alvarez vs. Daniel “Miracle Man” Jacobs. This fight is being highly promoted and advertised as the unification of the Middleweight Belts.
Canelo has two belts; WBC, and WBA belts and Jacob’s has one, the IBF belt. I just know this ain’t all the belts, but it’s the Middle Weight unification fight for these three sanctioning organizations.
It’s here!! The Fight is here..!! Just days away. We’ve been waiting on this Cinco de Mayo weekend for a long time. A year to be exact. This should be a great fight because these two men are no doubt competitors and they will mix it up, when the opportunity present itself.
Some Boxing experts say it’s a pick-um fight and others say Canelo wins. Some say Jacobs can win but it must be a knock-out, because he won’t get a judge’s nod. And others say Canelo is going to Knock-Out Jacobs and the Judges won’t come into play.
But most boxing fans you talk to say Canelo wins the fight. And you ask why, and they say because he is better skilled; adding he (Jacobs) can be touched.
I’ve Also been checking the Vegas odds and Canelo is typically at -450 and Jacobs is at +350; Saul Alvarez the clear favorite amongst fans.
This looks very bad for Jacobs. These odds are implying that Jacobs only has about a 22% chance of winning. It looks like a sucker’s bet for anyone betting on Jacobs. It does. It looks like a Suckers bet. The idea is, you will look at this match-up and say to yourself, “Danny can Win, right?” and you look over at the payback, +350/+100 and you say to yourself, “Danny can Win, right?”.
Meanwhile, there is another suckers bet taking place and they look at the low percentage chance for Danny and they say to themselves “Danny Can’t Win, for sure, the odds makers say So..!!” and they look at the return, +100/-450 and say to themselves “Danny Can’t Win, for sure, the odds makers say so”.
Will Jacobs climb the Ladder or will the Cinnamon Roll on??
Let us take a quick glimpse at some “Tale of the Tape” stuff.
|Professional Boxing Record||51W – 1L – 2D||35W – 2L|
|Amateur Boxing Record||44W – 2L||137W – 7L|
|Total Boxing Experience||54 + 46 = 100 Fights||37 + 144 = 181 Fights|
|Average Fight Length||7.01Rds||4.24Rds|
|Average Fight Length last 37 bouts||8.38Rds||4.24Rds|
|Average Opponents Weight
Over last 37 Bouts
|Average Length of Last 15 Bouts||137Rds – 9.13Rds Per Bout||94Rds – 6.26Rds Per Bout|
|Knockout Last 10 Fights||5||6|
OK, there ya go. Something to think about.
I could go on and on with tables like this, and the fans will all see the data in them the way they want to see them or interpret them.
The truth in it all is this. Daniel Jacobs has been fighting bigger guys by an average of more than 10 pounds in weight.
Interpretation, Daniel won’t have a problem with Canelo’s punch.
Canelo has been fighting smaller men and going twice as long in duration, with 6 KO’s and 14TKO’s over the last 37 bouts. Jacobs has had 5 KO’s and 24 TKO’s over his 37-bout career against bigger men. This information appears to imply that Daniel Jacobs has been more of a presence in the ring that Canelo has been.
I believe you can begin to see that there is a suckers bet being setup and it is attracting betting fanatics to Canelo; an 82 percent chance of winning says Vegas.
I have more truth.
Daniel Jacobs has more fighting experience than Canelo does. When you add the 144 amateur fights that Daniel had at Welterweight and Middleweight, to the 37 professional fights, he has 181 fights to call his boxing career. Canelo on the other hand had 46 amateur fights to go with his 54 professional fights for a total career number of 100 fights.
So, it is easy to see that Daniel Jacobs has more boxing experience than Canelo.
Well, you may ask, who did Daniel fight? Good Question.
Daniel was the Jr. Olympic Champ, U.S. National Champ, 2 Time Police Athletic League Champ, Golden Glove Champ (Welter + Middle), U.S. Amateur Champ and 4 Time New York City Golden Glove Champ.
Canelo also had success as an amateur. He was the Silver Medalist at the Jr. Mexican Nationals and he was the Jr. Mexican National Boxing Champ. He had 46 fights as an amateur and turned pro. Not Bad either.
There is no way to make a case that supports the notion that Canelo was fighting better competition in his boxing career than Daniel.
Who really has the most boxing experience? I would say Daniel Jacobs has more boxing Experience.
Honestly, when you factor in the controversial fights, as many as four, that many boxing fans believe Canelo lost, it begins to shed light on the hype that has surrounded Canelo and his boxing ability. He is good, very good but so is Daniel Jacobs; very good.
As a matter of fact, Daniel is so good, that the fight contract is armed with clauses to weaken Daniel, by not allowing him to hydrate to his full size. Which means his muscles won’t have the water and glycogen (sugar) going down the stretch. You should expect Daniel to weaken late in the fight.
Who wins the Fight?
Based on what information is being presented here you must go with Canelo as the winner. You have to go with him because the environment is set to give him advantage. The Judges, The Location, The Contract Clauses. Its all setup for the Fan Favorite.
Daniel can win the fight straight-up. He is a better talent, but Canelo has a global fan base and they pay to see him fight.
Now, don’t get it twisted. Even with a weakened Daniel Jacobs, If the powers in Vegas see fit to allow the cards to fall as they may, no doubt, Daniel wins hands down, by knockout or UD.
He’s too big for Canelo naturally. In the end we boxing fans all get suckered because it’s about the money not the talent.
They say that Styles make fights and that is true. But the paying fans make the champs and Canelo will have more votes in the seats than Daniel will on May 4, 2019.
On Saturday night in Las Vegas Daniel Jacobs is going to need another Miracle.
Enjoy the Show. Happy Cinco de Mayo..!!